Release of ‘The Future Shock of Retirement’ Study

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On April 29, 2008, Matthew Scanlan presented findings from the BGI research study “The Future Shock of Retirement” at a press and industry briefing. Co-authored with Jonathan Cohen and Matthew O’Hara, the study used data from the Health and Retirement Study to model the impact of realistic shocks to Social Security benefits and home equity values on middle-income American households.

Scanlan summarized the study’s central finding in a single sentence that was widely quoted in subsequent coverage: “One-half of all middle-class Americans will have one-quarter less in retirement than they realize.” He presented solutions at the government, employer, and individual levels, and focused particular attention on the behavioral tendency to count illiquid home equity as readily spendable retirement income. The briefing generated coverage in PlanSponsor and Pensions & Investments, and directly informed Scanlan’s testimony before the DOL ERISA Advisory Council the following year.